Will Poland win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?

Q: Will Poland win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 4.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2225.6% over 1.1mo.

46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner$2k liquidity$36 volumecloses 1.1mo

ChessSportsEsports

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.3¢
Implied chance: 4.3%
Return if right: 2225.6%
Spread cost: 49%

If you put in $100

You get 2325.6 shares at 4.3¢ each.

YES wins: $2325.58 back, a profit of $2225.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2118.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $4344.44.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.8¢
Implied chance: 99.8%
Return if right: 0.2%
Spread cost: 91%

If you put in $100

You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.

NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.30.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 25, 06:27 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, currently scheduled for September 15, 2026 to September 28, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.