Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.1¢
- Implied chance
- 6.1%
- Return if right
- 1539.3%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 1639.3 shares at 6.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1639.34 back, a profit of $1539.34. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $229.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $1769.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.4¢
- Implied chance
- 95.4%
- Return if right
- 4.8%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 104.8 shares at 95.4¢ each.
NO wins: $104.82 back, a profit of $4.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:32 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Turkey Resumes Black Sea Ship Transits Via Straits After DelaysBloomberg · 1d ago
- Turkey says Iran not target of pact with Saudi Arabia, PakistanThe Hill · 2d ago
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey sign defense pact as Iran repeats that Hormuz deal is closeCBS News · 2d ago
- Dune Oil provides update on rebrand, Turkey exploration plans - ICYMIYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan pact comes amid US-Iran war falloutFrance 24 · 2d ago
- From Iron Dome to Abraham Accords: Congressional trips helped shape 15 years of US-Israel cooperationFox News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
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