Will Trump say "Tehran" in August?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 87.0¢
- Implied chance
- 87.0%
- Return if right
- 14.9%
- Spread cost
- 66%
If you put in $100
You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.
YES wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $28.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $43.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 48.0¢
- Implied chance
- 48.0%
- Return if right
- 108.3%
- Spread cost
- 52%
If you put in $100
You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.
NO wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $119.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $227.87.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Tehran69.5%
- MIT / Massachusetts Institute of Technology80.0%
- National Mall71.5%
- Gulf of America / Gulf of Mexico75.0%
- Harvard71.5%
- Greenland61.5%
Latest: Aug 10, 07:21 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump demands Iran compensate Americans and protesters after Tehran seeks war reparationsFox News · 33m ago
- Iran war live: Tehran says ‘no military solution’ to Hormuz reopeningAl Jazeera · 21h ago
- Tehran's seeks withdrawal of US forces from regionFrance 24 · 1d ago
- Iran war live: Tehran seeks ‘to create grounds’ for talks with USAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- From Tehran’s walls to the world: Iran’s visual propaganda as an art of war (2/2)France 24 · 3d ago
- Iran war live: ‘High-level’ approval still pending from Tehran on Oman dealAl Jazeera · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump say "Tehran" in August?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Other outcomes in What places will Trump mention in August?
- Will Trump say "Middle East" in August?
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