Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Mexico" in August?

Q: Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Mexico" in August?

Prediction markets currently price this at 90%. A YES share costs 90.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 11.1% over 21d.

What places will Trump mention in August?$1k liquidity$200 volumecloses 21d

TrumpMentionsPolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 90.0¢
Implied chance: 90.0%
Return if right: 11.1%
Spread cost: 67%

If you put in $100

You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.

YES wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $33.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 40.0¢
Implied chance: 40.0%
Return if right: 150.0%
Spread cost: 50%

If you put in $100

You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.

NO wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $150.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $300.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 07:14 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Mexico" in Augu…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf