Will Larissa Waters be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.7¢
- Implied chance
- 0.7%
- Return if right
- 14185.7%
- Spread cost
- 36%
If you put in $100
You get 14285.7 shares at 0.7¢ each.
YES wins: $14285.71 back, a profit of $14185.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7936.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $22122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 56%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:25 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Australia’s falling house prices are actually a good thing for mortgage holders. Here’s whyThe Guardian · 3h ago
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- 'Body in suitcase' found in Australia turns out to be lifelike dollBBC News · 13h ago
- Australia orders Cryptolink Bitcoin ATMs offline over ‘basic reporting’ failuresCointelegraph · 14h ago
- Australia Widens Orders on Chinese Investors in Rare Earths FirmBloomberg · 17h ago
- Westpac Shares Drop on Signs of Australia Housing SlowdownBloomberg · 21h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Larissa Waters be Prime Minister of Australia after the…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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