Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $138.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 60.0¢
- Implied chance
- 60.0%
- Return if right
- 66.7%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 166.7 shares at 60.0¢ each.
NO wins: $166.67 back, a profit of $66.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $72.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 1, 12:44 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after t…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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