Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.3¢
- Implied chance
- 7.3%
- Return if right
- 1269.9%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 1369.9 shares at 7.3¢ each.
YES wins: $1369.86 back, a profit of $1269.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $243.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $1512.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.9¢
- Implied chance
- 94.9%
- Return if right
- 5.4%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 105.4 shares at 94.9¢ each.
NO wins: $105.37 back, a profit of $5.37. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 08:34 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Australia says OpenAI agent hacked government website containing healthcare dataCBS News · 1h ago
- Australia’s prime minister aims to rally middle powers and rein in A.I.The New York Times · 1h ago
- Australia news live: Albanese ramps up security council bid at UN; Hume says AI hack shows Australia needs more AIThe Guardian · 3h ago
- Why Australia chose the world's biggest political stage to reveal OpenAI hackBBC News · 6h ago
- Australia’s newest chicken factory looks like a modern art gallery – but will it improve animal welfare?The Guardian · 9h ago
- AI hack of Medicare exposes Australia’s vulnerabilities and experts warn ‘there is more of this to come’The Guardian · 9h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the n…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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