Will Larissa Waters be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.8¢
- Implied chance
- 0.8%
- Return if right
- 12400.0%
- Spread cost
- 31%
If you put in $100
You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.
YES wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5681.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $18081.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 06:12 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Why Australia chose the world's biggest political stage to reveal OpenAI hackBBC News · 2h ago
- Australia’s newest chicken factory looks like a modern art gallery – but will it improve animal welfare?The Guardian · 5h ago
- AI hack of Medicare exposes Australia’s vulnerabilities and experts warn ‘there is more of this to come’The Guardian · 5h ago
- Why did an OpenAI system hack Australia's health system - and can it be stopped in the future?BBC News · 6h ago
- OpenAI model went rogue and hacked Australia's healthcare systemCBS News · 6h ago
- Australia's prime minister slams OpenAI after its agent hacked government websiteCBS News · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Larissa Waters be Prime Minister of Australia after the…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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