Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.3¢
- Implied chance
- 12.3%
- Return if right
- 713.0%
- Spread cost
- 47%
If you put in $100
You get 813.0 shares at 12.3¢ each.
YES wins: $813.01 back, a profit of $713.01. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $625.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $1338.85.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.4¢
- Implied chance
- 98.4%
- Return if right
- 1.6%
- Spread cost
- 78%
If you put in $100
You get 101.6 shares at 98.4¢ each.
NO wins: $101.63 back, a profit of $1.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Credit-card routing competition7.0%
- DEFIANCE Act50.0%
- Export-control chip security20.5%
- Data center utility cost protection45.5%
- SHOWER Act30.6%
- Critical-minerals stockpile42.5%
Latest: Aug 10, 05:33 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the S.Amdt. 2229 to S. 1582 — “Credit Card Competition Act of 2025.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Which bills will become law in 2026?
- Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
- Will Trump Airport become law this year?
- Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year?
- Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
- Will the SHOWER Act become law this year?
- Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?
- Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?
- Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?
- Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?
- Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
- Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
- Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?