Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $111.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $1011.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Critical-minerals stockpile8.0%
- FISA Section 702 reauthorization15.0%
- NO FAKES Act21.5%
- Data center utility cost protection22.5%
- SHOWER Act4.1%
- SELF DRIVE Act2.8%
Latest: Sep 24, 06:45 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OECD: Critical-mineral traceability adoption grows but remains fragmentedYahoo Finance · 14d ago
- US Expands Search for Critical-Mineral Projects for Defense GearBloomberg · 1mo ago
- MP Materials vs. The Metals Company: Which Critical-Minerals Stock Is the Smarter Long-Term Buy?Yahoo Finance · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes H.R. 7126 (119th) — “To establish a Strategic Resilience Reserve of the United States…” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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