Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1000.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $2566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.5¢
- Implied chance
- 98.5%
- Return if right
- 1.5%
- Spread cost
- 61%
If you put in $100
You get 101.5 shares at 98.5¢ each.
NO wins: $101.52 back, a profit of $1.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- SELF DRIVE Act14.7%
- Export-control chip security26.5%
- AI-chip export licensing23.0%
- DEFIANCE Act21.0%
- SHOWER Act4.3%
- Critical-minerals stockpile17.0%
Latest: Aug 10, 05:45 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress, and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 7390 (119th) — SELF DRIVE Act of 2026. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Which bills will become law in 2026?
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