Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.9¢
- Implied chance
- 1.9%
- Return if right
- 5163.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 5263.2 shares at 1.9¢ each.
YES wins: $5263.16 back, a profit of $5163.16. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $142.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $5305.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.2¢
- Implied chance
- 98.2%
- Return if right
- 1.8%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 101.8 shares at 98.2¢ each.
NO wins: $101.83 back, a profit of $1.83. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 11:48 AM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Bitcoin's BIP-110 episode is free-market capitalism in purest formCoinDesk · 18m ago
- Markets flip for Fed rate-hike pause into CPI: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekCointelegraph · 36m ago
- Bitcoin steadies above $65,000 as Iran-Oman deal talk eases Hormuz concerns, lifts risk assetsCoinDesk · 1h ago
- Bitcoin's $82K May Rally Setup Is Back, but One Key Ingredient Is Missing: AnalystYahoo Finance · 1h ago
- H100 becomes Europe’s No. 2 Bitcoin treasury after 2,455 BTC dealCointelegraph · 2h ago
- Bitcoin volatility is in meltdown, but downside protection still commands a premiumCoinDesk · 2h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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