Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 2%. A YES share costs 1.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 5163.2% over 4.7mo.

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?$100k liquidity$791k volumecloses 4.7mo

BitcoinYearlyHit PriceCrypto PricesCrypto

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.9¢
Implied chance: 1.9%
Return if right: 5163.2%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 5263.2 shares at 1.9¢ each.

YES wins: $5263.16 back, a profit of $5163.16. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $142.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $5305.41.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.2¢
Implied chance: 98.2%
Return if right: 1.8%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 101.8 shares at 98.2¢ each.

NO wins: $101.83 back, a profit of $1.83. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 12:39 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.