U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 16.9¢
- Implied chance
- 16.9%
- Return if right
- 491.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 591.7 shares at 16.9¢ each.
YES wins: $591.72 back, a profit of $491.72. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $21.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $513.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.3¢
- Implied chance
- 84.3%
- Return if right
- 18.6%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 118.6 shares at 84.3¢ each.
NO wins: $118.62 back, a profit of $18.62. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:17 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Taiwan braces for possible Chinese invasion with military drillsCBS News · 1h ago
- Inside Taiwan's drills for a potential Chinese invasionCBS News · 3h ago
- Nvidia Scores 12% Weekly Gain As Taiwan Semiconductor Sales Soars; Is Nvidia A Buy Now?Yahoo Finance · 3h ago
- Chip equipment stocks rise after Taiwan Semiconductor revenue surges 45%Yahoo Finance · 4h ago
- Chip equipment stocks rise after Taiwan Semiconductor revenue surges 45%Yahoo Finance · 4h ago
- Prediction: Micron and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Stocks Will Both Rebound to Fresh Highs Before 2026 EndsYahoo Finance · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?