U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.0¢
- Implied chance
- 13.0%
- Return if right
- 669.2%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.
YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $183.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $852.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 09:04 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Mass shooting at a house party in South Africa kills 11France 24 · 8h ago
- Trump pushes to admit 17,500 White Afrikaners from South Africa in 2027 refugee capThe Hill · 1d ago
- At least 11 people killed in South Africa township shootingAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Eleven killed in mass shooting at house in South AfricaBBC News · 2d ago
- South Africa: 11 killed in attack on house partyDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- South Africa: 11 killed in attack on homesteadDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?