U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.8¢
- Implied chance
- 11.8%
- Return if right
- 747.5%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 847.5 shares at 11.8¢ each.
YES wins: $847.46 back, a profit of $747.46. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $188.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $936.27.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.5¢
- Implied chance
- 92.5%
- Return if right
- 8.1%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 108.1 shares at 92.5¢ each.
NO wins: $108.11 back, a profit of $8.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 2, 08:59 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- North Korea fires ballistic missile towards the sea, South Korea saysAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- South Korea’s military says North Korea fired projectile toward its eastern watersABC News · 1d ago
- Trump shrugs off South Korea's uncertainty on $54B Alaska energy investmentThe Hill · 1d ago
- Trump threatens to double tariffs on South Korea if they do not pay for Alaska natural gas pipeline – as it happenedThe Guardian · 2d ago
- South Korea demands Ukraine apology, warns of actionDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- South Korea demands Ukraine apology over POW disclosureDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 20…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?