U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.3¢
- Implied chance
- 9.3%
- Return if right
- 975.3%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 1075.3 shares at 9.3¢ each.
YES wins: $1075.27 back, a profit of $975.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $475.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $1450.39.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.4¢
- Implied chance
- 96.4%
- Return if right
- 3.7%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 103.7 shares at 96.4¢ each.
NO wins: $103.73 back, a profit of $3.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 06:10 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- European Union Needs to Reduce Dependency on China, Says Spain's Prime MinisterBloomberg · 23h ago
- Canada poised to become European Union's first 'associate member'NBC News · 7d ago
- Trump Wanted Canada as the 51st State. He Ended Up Pushing It Toward the European Union.The New York Times · 8d ago
- The 28th state? Carney's Canada draws closer to European UnionFrance 24 · 8d ago
- European Union invites Canada to become first ever ‘associate member’The Guardian · 8d ago
- Iceland Votes to Steer Clear of European Union TalksThe New York Times · 25d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?