Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.2¢
- Implied chance
- 6.2%
- Return if right
- 1512.9%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 1612.9 shares at 6.2¢ each.
YES wins: $1612.90 back, a profit of $1512.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $448.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $1961.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 29%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- No Czar by December 310.3%
- Jay Clayton100.0%
- Emil Michael0.1%
- Sriram Krishnan0.1%
- Scott Kupor0.1%
- Michael Kratsios0.1%
Latest: Oct 5, 04:00 AM2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be AI czar. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appoint a specific individual as AI czar will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal appointment actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the AI czar or future AI czar. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. An announcement will qualify regardless of the name used to refer to AI, including "super intelligence" (SI). However, the person must be announced as the "czar" or a derivative thereof. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for AI czar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Czar by December 31”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.