Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?

Q: Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 5.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1823.1% over 4.1mo.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?$173 liquidity$3k volumecloses 4.1mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.2¢
Implied chance: 5.2%
Return if right: 1823.1%
Spread cost: 29%

If you put in $100

You get 1923.1 shares at 5.2¢ each.

YES wins: $1923.08 back, a profit of $1823.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $743.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $2566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.7¢
Implied chance: 97.7%
Return if right: 2.4%
Spread cost: 40%

If you put in $100

You get 102.4 shares at 97.7¢ each.

NO wins: $102.35 back, a profit of $2.35. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.90.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 29, 10:28 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.