Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 17.0¢
- Implied chance
- 17.0%
- Return if right
- 488.2%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.
YES wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 07:36 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Treasury Yield Surge Pushes Spreads Versus Asia Near ExtremesBloomberg · 37m ago
- Dogecoin down 8%, bitcoin under $84,000 as Treasury yields hit highest level since 2007CoinDesk · 5h ago
- 10-year Treasury yield spikes to highest point since 2007The Hill · 10h ago
- Bitcoin Price Slips While US Treasury Yields Soar, Oil Prices ClimbBitcoin Magazine · 12h ago
- Biggest Long-Bond ETF Hits Record Low as Traders Dump TreasuriesBloomberg · 13h ago
- Stock Market Midday, Sept. 23: Stocks Slip as Treasury Yields Hit 19-Year HighYahoo Finance · 16h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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