Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.1¢
- Implied chance
- 9.1%
- Return if right
- 998.9%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 1098.9 shares at 9.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1098.90 back, a profit of $998.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $208.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $1207.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.8¢
- Implied chance
- 93.8%
- Return if right
- 6.6%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 106.6 shares at 93.8¢ each.
NO wins: $106.61 back, a profit of $6.61. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 01:37 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- 10-year Treasury yield spikes to highest point since 2007The Hill · 5h ago
- Bitcoin Price Slips While US Treasury Yields Soar, Oil Prices ClimbBitcoin Magazine · 6h ago
- Biggest Long-Bond ETF Hits Record Low as Traders Dump TreasuriesBloomberg · 7h ago
- Stock Market Midday, Sept. 23: Stocks Slip as Treasury Yields Hit 19-Year HighYahoo Finance · 10h ago
- 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps As Markets Bet On Two Fed Rate Hikes. Bessent Won't Fight It.Yahoo Finance · 11h ago
- Treasury yields surge to near 20-year high as oil jumps back above $103 per barrelNBC News · 11h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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