Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.1¢
- Implied chance
- 10.1%
- Return if right
- 890.1%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 990.1 shares at 10.1¢ each.
YES wins: $990.10 back, a profit of $890.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $895.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.17.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 1, 08:09 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Bond Traders Snap Up Protection Against Soaring Treasury YieldsBloomberg · 54m ago
- This could be the 10-year Treasury’s tipping point into the danger zoneMarketWatch · 2h ago
- Crypto treasury companies hit $340 billion market cap as altcoin DATs outperformThe Block · 2h ago
- Solana Treasury DeFi Development Corp Eyes $20 Million Raise to Buy More SOLDecrypt · 2h ago
- Treasury Yields Hit 19-Month High As Bond Woes Spread Around The GlobeYahoo Finance · 3h ago
- Bessent meets BOJ's Ueda, calls for sound policy to avoid currency volatility, Treasury saysYahoo Finance · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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