Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 51%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
YES wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 22.0¢
- Implied chance
- 22.0%
- Return if right
- 354.5%
- Spread cost
- 37%
If you put in $100
You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.
NO wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $212.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- September 1585.0%
- October 3199.2%
- September 3095.9%
- Super Heavy booster explodes?90.5%
- Chopsticks catch Starship?54.0%
- Successful splash down?38.0%
Latest: Aug 10, 05:58 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Other outcomes in SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 22?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?