Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
YES wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
NO wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $75.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $809.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Super Heavy booster explodes?90.5%
- October 3197.5%
- September 3081.7%
- Successful splash down?81.5%
- September 260.2%
- Chopsticks catch Starship?2.7%
Latest: Sep 24, 04:22 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Other outcomes in SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 22?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?