Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 50%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
YES wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $81.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $163.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 57%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $34.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $61.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Successful splash down?38.0%
- October 3199.3%
- September 3096.0%
- Super Heavy booster explodes?90.0%
- September 1586.5%
- Chopsticks catch Starship?54.0%
Latest: Aug 10, 05:28 PM3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.” This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Other outcomes in SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 22?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?