Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

Q: Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1119.5% over 3.3mo.

Speaker of the House after the midterms?$2k liquidity$106 volumecloses 3.3mo

PoliticsMidtermsdemocrathouse of representativesSpeakerCongress

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.2¢
Implied chance: 8.2%
Return if right: 1119.5%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 1219.5 shares at 8.2¢ each.

YES wins: $1219.51 back, a profit of $1119.51. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $931.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $2050.54.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.9¢
Implied chance: 98.9%
Return if right: 1.1%
Spread cost: 77%

If you put in $100

You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.

NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 25, 12:13 AM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.