Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

Q: Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 13%. A YES share costs 13.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 669.2% over 3.2mo.

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?$11k liquidity$125k volumecloses 3.2mo

PoliticsWorldGeopoliticsIsrael

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 13.0¢
Implied chance: 13.0%
Return if right: 669.2%
Spread cost: 30%

If you put in $100

You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.

YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $283.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 39%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 25, 09:32 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.