Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Q: Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1150.0% over 4.7mo.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?$11k liquidity$16k volumecloses 4.7mo

PoliticsTrump

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.0¢
Implied chance: 8.0%
Return if right: 1150.0%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $178.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $1328.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 15%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.53.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 09:54 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Marco Rubio says millions of American jobs were destroyed for cheap goods — but Trump’s fix could crash your retirementYahoo Finance · 4d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.