Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Q: Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 15%. A YES share costs 15.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 566.7% over 3.2mo.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?$153 liquidity$572 volumecloses 3.2mo

PoliticsTrump

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 15.0¢
Implied chance: 15.0%
Return if right: 566.7%
Spread cost: 23%

If you put in $100

You get 666.7 shares at 15.0¢ each.

YES wins: $666.67 back, a profit of $566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $166.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $733.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 91.0¢
Implied chance: 91.0%
Return if right: 9.9%
Spread cost: 27%

If you put in $100

You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.

NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.64.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 09:01 PM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.