Will Ivonne de Baki be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Q: Will Ivonne de Baki be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 11011.1% over 4.3mo.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations$13k liquidity$287 volumecloses 4.3mo

GeopoliticsPoliticsUNRewards 20, 4.5, 50

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.9¢
Implied chance: 0.9%
Return if right: 11011.1%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.

YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1388.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $12400.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.3¢
Implied chance: 99.3%
Return if right: 0.7%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.

NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.81.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 22, 03:16 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ivonne de Baki be the next Secretary-General of the Uni…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.