Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Q: Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Prediction markets currently price this at 35%. A YES share costs 34.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 187.4% over 4.3mo.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations$2k liquidity$2k volumecloses 4.3mo

GeopoliticsPoliticsUNRewards 20, 4.5, 50

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 34.8¢
Implied chance: 34.8%
Return if right: 187.4%
Spread cost: 51%

If you put in $100

You get 287.4 shares at 34.8¢ each.

YES wins: $287.36 back, a profit of $187.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $195.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $383.09.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 93.4¢
Implied chance: 93.4%
Return if right: 7.1%
Spread cost: 73%

If you put in $100

You get 107.1 shares at 93.4¢ each.

NO wins: $107.07 back, a profit of $7.07. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $19.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $26.10.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 22, 03:16 AM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.