Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.1¢
- Implied chance
- 5.1%
- Return if right
- 1860.8%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 1960.8 shares at 5.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1960.78 back, a profit of $1860.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $80.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $1940.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.3¢
- Implied chance
- 95.3%
- Return if right
- 4.9%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 104.9 shares at 95.3¢ each.
NO wins: $104.93 back, a profit of $4.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:31 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘We have no one’: Palestinians react to Israel’s rejection of Gaza planAl Jazeera · 1h ago
- Anas al-Sharif: One year on from Israel’s killing of Al Jazeera reporterAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 8h ago
- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 15h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 19h ago
- Hasan Piker stands by 'intentionally provocative' claims that Hamas is 'a thousand times better' than IsraelFox News · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Other outcomes in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
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