Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.6¢
- Implied chance
- 2.6%
- Return if right
- 3746.2%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 3846.2 shares at 2.6¢ each.
YES wins: $3846.15 back, a profit of $3746.15. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $320.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $4066.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.8¢
- Implied chance
- 97.8%
- Return if right
- 2.2%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 102.2 shares at 97.8¢ each.
NO wins: $102.25 back, a profit of $2.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 04:05 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel game should not go ahead - Republic's KnightBBC Sport · 12m ago
- Netanyahu lambasts Israel’s critics at UN as New York protesters detained | First ThingThe Guardian · 19m ago
- Israel’s Abu Farchi sent off for gun celebration in Nations League matchAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- Contrasting treatment of Israel and Palestine on display at the UNAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Benjamin Netanyahu attacks Israel’s enemies and allies in UN speechAl Jazeera · 13h ago
- 'Don't put pressure on us' over Israel games - Republic of Ireland's OgbeneBBC Sport · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Other outcomes in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
- Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
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