Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $90.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:23 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel’s destruction leaves Lebanon’s border villages in ruinsAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Israel targets paramedics in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- How Israel’s destruction of south Lebanon is making displacement permanentAl Jazeera · 11d ago
- Israel bombs southern Lebanon as talks postponedAl Jazeera · 12d ago
- Israel-Lebanon talks postponed as explosions rock southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 12d ago
- Lebanon: Tremor recorded as Israel says destroyed key Hezbollah tunnelsFrance 24 · 13d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Other outcomes in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
- Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
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