Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?

Q: Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2464.1% over 4.7mo.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?$12k liquidity$9k volumecloses 4.7mo

PoliticsCelebritiesElectionsPresident

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.9¢
Implied chance: 3.9%
Return if right: 2464.1%
Spread cost: 39%

If you put in $100

You get 2564.1 shares at 3.9¢ each.

YES wins: $2564.10 back, a profit of $2464.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1602.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $4066.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.1¢
Implied chance: 99.1%
Return if right: 0.9%
Spread cost: 63%

If you put in $100

You get 100.9 shares at 99.1¢ each.

NO wins: $100.91 back, a profit of $0.91. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.46.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 11, 03:39 AM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.