Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.0¢
- Implied chance
- 13.0%
- Return if right
- 669.2%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.
YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $700.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.0¢
- Implied chance
- 88.0%
- Return if right
- 13.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.
NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Gavin Newsom13.5%
- Pete Buttigieg10.5%
- Kamala Harris4.3%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene5.5%
- Hunter Biden5.5%
- Donald Trump5.3%
Latest: Sep 24, 03:04 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Beshear-Moore ticket? Democratic presidential hopefuls are pairing upThe Hill · 5h ago
- A Corruption Scandal Is Reshaping Brazil’s Presidential ElectionThe New York Times · 6h ago
- Trump to greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews, a presidential move not seen since 1962CBS News · 17h ago
- Family tied to suspected Chinese spy gave $4.4 million to Gavin Newsom, other California politiciansCBS News · 2d ago
- AOC says she'll decide on presidential run after midtermsCBS News · 2d ago
- The Memo: Ocasio-Cortez fuels speculation about her presidential plans in new interviewThe Hill · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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