Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $151.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $1718.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.0¢
- Implied chance
- 95.0%
- Return if right
- 5.3%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.
NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Donald Trump Jr.5.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.5%
- Pete Buttigieg10.9%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene5.5%
- Kamala Harris4.9%
- Hunter Biden5.5%
Latest: Sep 24, 08:52 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Republican senators push for probe into Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter BidenCBS News · 1d ago
- Republicans push for investigation into Donald Trump Jr. amid wedding party controversyCBS News · 1d ago
- Republican Senator Urges Congress to Investigate Donald Trump Jr.The New York Times · 2d ago
- US Republican calls for probe into Donald Trump Jr’s business dealingsAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- GOP senator calls for subpoenaing Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden over their business dealingsNBC News · 2d ago
- Republican senator calls for investigation of Donald Trump Jr., Hunter BidenABC News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
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