Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.2¢
- Implied chance
- 6.2%
- Return if right
- 1512.9%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 1612.9 shares at 6.2¢ each.
YES wins: $1612.90 back, a profit of $1512.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $1526.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.9¢
- Implied chance
- 93.9%
- Return if right
- 6.5%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 106.5 shares at 93.9¢ each.
NO wins: $106.50 back, a profit of $6.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Donald Trump6.2%
- Gavin Newsom13.5%
- Andy Beshear10.5%
- Kamala Harris10.5%
- Pete Buttigieg9.5%
- Cory Booker5.7%
Latest: Aug 10, 06:13 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel rejects Donald Trump’s Gaza Board of Peace planAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- President Donald Trump Expected the Iran War to Drive the Stock Market "Down 20% to 25%" -- His Prophecy May Still Come TrueYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- Donald Trump renews effort to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa CookAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- Don Lemon Wants Criminal Charges Against Him Related to Minnesota ICE Protest Dropped, Citing Donald Trump’s Chronic ‘Animus’ Toward JournalistVariety · 3d ago
- Could the Iran war derail Donald Trump’s legacy?Al Jazeera · 5d ago
- US refunds $100bn of Donald Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffsThe Guardian · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
- Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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- Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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