Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Q: Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2757.1% over 3.2mo.

Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?$391 liquidity$7k volumecloses 3.2mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.5¢
Implied chance: 3.5%
Return if right: 2757.1%
Spread cost: 23%

If you put in $100

You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.

YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $846.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $3603.70.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.1¢
Implied chance: 98.1%
Return if right: 1.9%
Spread cost: 30%

If you put in $100

You get 101.9 shares at 98.1¢ each.

NO wins: $101.94 back, a profit of $1.94. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.77.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 08:31 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.