Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.0¢
- Implied chance
- 3.0%
- Return if right
- 3233.3%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.
YES wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $238.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $3471.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Riot Platforms and MARA Drop 6%, CleanSpark Sinks 5% as Strategy Sells Bitcoin, SharesYahoo Finance · 1h ago
- Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next?Decrypt · 1h ago
- Keel shutters all US bitcoin mining operations amid continuing AI pivotThe Block · 2h ago
- America Helped Save the Yen, The Market Just Took It Back, and Bitcoin Is ExposedYahoo Finance · 2h ago
- Strategy Sells Bitcoin Again For Cash Buffer, STRC BuybackBitcoin Magazine · 2h ago
- Bitcoin price slip wipes weekend gains as oil surge hits 5% on Hormuz disappointmentCointelegraph · 2h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.