Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.3¢
- Implied chance
- 2.3%
- Return if right
- 4247.8%
- Spread cost
- 29%
If you put in $100
You get 4347.8 shares at 2.3¢ each.
YES wins: $4347.83 back, a profit of $4247.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1712.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $5960.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- [[alloc] init] Releases Shielded Bitcoin Proposal For Private Bitcoin TransactionsBitcoin Magazine · 28m ago
- Former CFTC Commissioner Giancarlo: Why Rate Hikes Could Benefit BitcoinBitcoin Magazine · 2h ago
- Bloomberg’s James Seyffart: Why Trillions in Advisor Wealth Could Flow Into BitcoinBitcoin Magazine · 2h ago
- Live updates: Bitcoin climbs from session lows as interest rates easeCoinDesk · 4h ago
- Bitcoin slides to $83,300 as bond yields hit highest level since 2007CoinDesk · 5h ago
- Bitcoin falls below $84K as 10-year Treasury yield hits 19-year highCointelegraph · 5h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.