Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.1¢
- Implied chance
- 3.1%
- Return if right
- 3125.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 3225.8 shares at 3.1¢ each.
YES wins: $3225.81 back, a profit of $3125.81. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $164.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $3289.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.2¢
- Implied chance
- 97.2%
- Return if right
- 2.9%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 102.9 shares at 97.2¢ each.
NO wins: $102.88 back, a profit of $2.88. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Morning Minute: Bitcoin ETFs See Biggest Inflows Since MayDecrypt · 30m ago
- Morning Minute: Bitcoin ETFs See Biggest Inflows Since MayYahoo Finance · 30m ago
- Strategy Sells $109M in Bitcoin as Dollar Reserve Tops $4.6BDecrypt · 37m ago
- Strategy Sells $109M in Bitcoin as Dollar Reserve Tops $4.6BYahoo Finance · 37m ago
- Bitcoin ETFs Draw $854M Over Five Days as Rate-Hike Bets FadeDecrypt · 47m ago
- Strategy sells 1,690 bitcoin, raises $653 million from MSTR sharesCoinDesk · 53m ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.