Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.0¢
- Implied chance
- 3.0%
- Return if right
- 3233.3%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.
YES wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $238.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $3471.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Blockstream Debuts Swaps, Allowing Bitcoiners to Move Between Lightning and Main Network With EaseBitcoin Magazine · 12m ago
- Trump Media’s bitcoin holdings shrink as crypto losses hit $361 millionCoinDesk · 18m ago
- Bitcoin ATMs Pulled in Australia as Regulators Signal Wider CrackdownDecrypt · 28m ago
- ETFs Look Safer After Bitcoin Hack, Small Caps | ETF IQ 8/10/2026Bloomberg · 42m ago
- BTCPay Server Offers a 3 Bitcoin Bounty for Recovery of Stolen Funds After Wallet ExploitBitcoin Magazine · 1h ago
- Strategy builds $4.75 billion cash cushion as only bitcoin isn’t enough for investorsCoinDesk · 1h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.