Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.4¢
- Implied chance
- 2.4%
- Return if right
- 4066.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 4166.7 shares at 2.4¢ each.
YES wins: $4166.67 back, a profit of $4066.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $88.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $4155.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.7¢
- Implied chance
- 97.7%
- Return if right
- 2.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 102.4 shares at 97.7¢ each.
NO wins: $102.35 back, a profit of $2.35. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:23 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Blockstream Debuts Swaps, Allowing Bitcoiners to Move Between Lightning and Main Network With EaseBitcoin Magazine · 1h ago
- Trump Media’s bitcoin holdings shrink as crypto losses hit $361 millionCoinDesk · 1h ago
- Bitcoin ATMs Pulled in Australia as Regulators Signal Wider CrackdownDecrypt · 1h ago
- ETFs Look Safer After Bitcoin Hack, Small Caps | ETF IQ 8/10/2026Bloomberg · 2h ago
- BTCPay Server Offers a 3 Bitcoin Bounty for Recovery of Stolen Funds After Wallet ExploitBitcoin Magazine · 2h ago
- Strategy builds $4.75 billion cash cushion as only bitcoin isn’t enough for investorsCoinDesk · 2h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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