Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.1¢
- Implied chance
- 2.1%
- Return if right
- 4661.9%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 4761.9 shares at 2.1¢ each.
YES wins: $4761.90 back, a profit of $4661.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1488.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $6150.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- September 30, 20260.6%
- December 31, 202765.5%
- June 30, 202752.5%
- February 28, 202734.5%
- January 31, 202722.5%
- December 31, 202618.5%
Latest: Sep 24, 08:31 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- SpaceX vs Amazon: Which Is the Better Stock to Own Over the Next 10 YearsYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Are Woth More Than Every Single IPO in the Last 45 YearsYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Michael Burry Says SpaceX Isn't Worth $1 Trillion. Its AI Business Could Prove Him Wrong.Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Verizon Seen Leading 2027 Spectrum Auction, With SpaceX LurkingYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- SpaceX Breaches $150 Again: Will the ‘Golden Dome’ Announcements Be Enough to Keep Prices Above IPO Levels?Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Elon Musk Is Teasing a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Again. Terafab Shows Why AI Could Be the LogicYahoo Finance · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?