Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.4¢
- Implied chance
- 5.4%
- Return if right
- 1751.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 1851.9 shares at 5.4¢ each.
YES wins: $1851.85 back, a profit of $1751.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $34.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $1786.79.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.8¢
- Implied chance
- 94.8%
- Return if right
- 5.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 105.5 shares at 94.8¢ each.
NO wins: $105.49 back, a profit of $5.49. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- SpaceX stock rebounds to $135 IPO price after post-debut slumpYahoo Finance · 1h ago
- SpaceX's First Lockup Expired Last Week. Why Didn't the Stock Crash?Yahoo Finance · 2h ago
- A 5-Year Plan for Investing in SpaceX Today at $133Yahoo Finance · 2h ago
- SpaceX Stock Has Plunged 34%. Elon Musk's "Secret Master Plan" Points to What Could Come Next.Yahoo Finance · 2h ago
- Here's how SpaceX hits this $100 billion number in under 5 monthsYahoo Finance · 2h ago
- Up 26%, SpaceX Briefly Breaks Above IPO Price. Fundamental Turnaround or Short Squeeze?Yahoo Finance · 3h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.