Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?

Q: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 44%. A YES share costs 44.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 127.3% over 10.5mo.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?$8k liquidity$2k volumecloses 10.5mo

TeslaElon MuskSpaceXBig TechSpaceTech

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 44.0¢
Implied chance: 44.0%
Return if right: 127.3%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.

YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 57.0¢
Implied chance: 57.0%
Return if right: 75.4%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.

NO wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 15, 12:39 AM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.