Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 23.0¢
- Implied chance
- 23.0%
- Return if right
- 334.8%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.
YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 78.0¢
- Implied chance
- 78.0%
- Return if right
- 28.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 128.2 shares at 78.0¢ each.
NO wins: $128.21 back, a profit of $28.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- January 31, 202722.5%
- December 31, 202762.5%
- June 30, 202742.5%
- February 28, 202720.5%
- December 31, 202616.0%
Latest: Oct 2, 05:44 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Rocket Report: SpaceX completes launch triple-header; Rocket Lab nets big contractArs Technica · 5h ago
- SpaceX flight led by first black female commander sets US speed recordSky News · 15h ago
- SpaceX Crew 13 docking at International Space StationCBS News · 17h ago
- Astronaut aboard SpaceX rocket has pregnant wife at home: "Making a sacrifice"CBS News · 17h ago
- ‘An amazing ride’: SpaceX flight led by first Black female commander sets US speed recordThe Guardian · 18h ago
- Details on international crew aboard SpaceX rocket headed to ISSCBS News · 19h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?