Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?

Q: Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?

Prediction markets currently price this at 93%. A YES share costs 93.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 7.5% over 4.1mo.

Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?$916 liquidity$11k volumecloses 4.1mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 93.0¢
Implied chance: 93.0%
Return if right: 7.5%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.

YES wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 8.0¢
Implied chance: 8.0%
Return if right: 1150.0%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.

NO wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 16, 03:40 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.