GTA VI released by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.2¢
- Implied chance
- 1.2%
- Return if right
- 8233.3%
- Spread cost
- 29%
If you put in $100
You get 8333.3 shares at 1.2¢ each.
YES wins: $8333.33 back, a profit of $8233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3431.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $11664.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.5¢
- Implied chance
- 99.5%
- Return if right
- 0.5%
- Spread cost
- 41%
If you put in $100
You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.
NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 12:14 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Take-Two Reaffirms GTA VI Launch Date, Maps Global Strategy at Annual MeetingYahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Nintendo isn’t scared of GTA VIThe Verge · 16d ago
- GTA VI's Console Problem Isn't Take-Two's ProblemYahoo Finance · 19d ago
- Did GTA VI Leaks Hurt Take-Two Stock? One Analyst Says Otherwise.Yahoo Finance · 24d ago
- Take-Two shares rise after Rockstar Games releases extended GTA VI previewYahoo Finance · 27d ago
- The GTA VI ‘extended look’ is now streaming on YouTubeThe Verge · 27d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “GTA VI released by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.