GTA VI released by November 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 95.9¢
- Implied chance
- 95.9%
- Return if right
- 4.3%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 104.3 shares at 95.9¢ each.
YES wins: $104.28 back, a profit of $4.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.49.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 6.3¢
- Implied chance
- 6.3%
- Return if right
- 1487.3%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 1587.3 shares at 6.3¢ each.
NO wins: $1587.30 back, a profit of $1487.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $335.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $1823.08.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 7, 04:25 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Take-Two Reaffirms GTA VI Launch Date, Maps Global Strategy at Annual MeetingYahoo Finance · 19d ago
- Nintendo isn’t scared of GTA VIThe Verge · 29d ago
- GTA VI's Console Problem Isn't Take-Two's ProblemYahoo Finance · 1mo ago
- Did GTA VI Leaks Hurt Take-Two Stock? One Analyst Says Otherwise.Yahoo Finance · 1mo ago
- Take-Two shares rise after Rockstar Games releases extended GTA VI previewYahoo Finance · 1mo ago
- The GTA VI ‘extended look’ is now streaming on YouTubeThe Verge · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “GTA VI released by November 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.