Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 70%. A YES share costs 70.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 42.9% over 9d.

US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz$13k liquidity$0 volumecloses 9d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 70.0¢
Implied chance: 70.0%
Return if right: 42.9%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.

YES wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 33.0¢
Implied chance: 33.0%
Return if right: 203.0%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.

NO wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 28, 07:36 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Roman Safiullin in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Roman Safiullin, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Safiullin." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Safiullin." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current